The New York Times
May 1, 2000


Approval Expected for Transit Agency's Spending Plan



By RICHARD PEREZ-PENA

ALBANY, April 30,2000 Despite continued, fierce opposition from finance experts and transit advocates, officials here say the Legislature will approve the Metropolitan Transportation Authority's $17 billion capital plan, perhaps as early as this week.

Analysts say that even with changes made in the last few  weeks, the plan still rests on a vast pile of debt that will force fare  increases and will hobble the authority's ability to make capital  improvements in the future. It would require the largest sale of municipal  bonds in history, $22 billion over five years.

"Our criticism of the old plan is our criticism of the new  plan," said Frank J. Mauro, director of the Fiscal Policy Institute,  a nonprofit group here that studies state and local finances.  "They haven't changed much. It's still a nightmare."

The plan, covering this year through 2004, envisions the  first major expansion of the transit and commuter rail system in generations. It would begin construction of a Long Island Rail  Road connection to Grand Central Terminal, and conduct the   engineering work to prepare for building a full-length Second Avenue subway   line and a subway connection to La Guardia Airport.

"But if the financing isn't real, the plan's not real,"  said Gene Russianoff, staff lawyer with the Straphangers Campaign, a  transit advocacy group. "This plan puts those projects farther away,  not nearer. It's a phony plan."

In recent weeks, Mr. Russianoff and others have started  complaining that the plan will short-change city residents. They note that  most of the money to be spent on the Long Island project is in the  first years of the plan, while the money for the Second Avenue and La  Guardia projects lags several years behind. When the time comes to put  shovels in the dirt for the city projects, they predict, the money  will be gone.

E. Virgil Conway, the M.T.A. chairman, dismissed such  predictions. "That would be highly irresponsible," he said. "A system is a  system and you hope that people understand the interrelation of the  parts." Overall, he said, "I think our plan is well conceived."

Legislators and aides in both the Assembly and the Senate  say the decision has been made to approve the plan. "I would say that  we are 80 percent there on the details," Senator Dean G. Skelos, a  Nassau County Republican who has taken the lead role on the plan in  his house, said last week. "It should be done very soon."

For the plan to go forward, the Legislature must pass a  bill permitting the authority to refinance its existing debts  through the sale of $12 billion in bonds. The entire plan must be approved  by a review board that includes representatives of the Senate and  Assembly leaders, who blocked an earlier version of the plan but have   signaled that the latest one will pass muster.

In addition, Gov. George E. Pataki and the Legislature have  promised $1.6 billion from a November bond issue for M.T.A.  capital projects.

Mr. Pataki has forced a profound change in the way the  authority pays for its upkeep and improvements, by largely withdrawing  the state from the role it once played as the major source of money. New  York City has also cut back sharply.

For the new capital plan, those changes have forced the the  authority to rely mostly on borrowed money, to be repaid  through riders' fares over the next 30 years. The authority would sell  $10 billion in new bonds, a burden that critics say the agency's  budget cannot support without huge fare increases.

Mr. Conway said that there was similar criticism when the  last capital plan was proposed five years ago. "They were pounding  the table and screaming to stop this," he said. "And what  happened? We had the first fare reductions in the history of the entire  system," a reference to the volume fare discounts introduced in recent  years.

That plan worked and so will the new one, he said.

But the last plan involved $3.5 billion in new debt, not  the $10 billion envisioned under the new one.

And in fact, the 1995 plan has left the authority facing  deficits in the hundreds of millions of dollars each year. That is  because the amount of money the authority has had to take out of its fare  revenues to pay off debts has climbed from $500 million in 1995 to $1  billion this year. And it will reach $1.6 billion a year with all the  debt envisioned in the new plan.

In addition to fears about the $10 billion in new debt,  there has been sharp criticism of the bond refinancing. That deal would  lower annual payments on the debt somewhat in the early years, but  it would increase the cost of repayment by $5.4 billion over the  30-year life of the bonds. Finance experts in government and in the private  sector call that bad policy, but many add that they see no other way   to get the authority through the next several years.


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